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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 0:10 AM 

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Folks,

Your amateur meteorologist Goosenheimer here. I know we have players all over the world and so of you may not be aware that those of us in the SE USA and Caribbean are due for another monster hurricane. It is currently moving north at 7mph (11km/h) and lies south of Cuba and Hispaniola. We are looking at maximum sustained winds of 140MPH (220 km/h) at the moment and there are higher gusts. Some fluctuations are possible but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for the next few days. To give you an idea of the scope for those who are unfamiliar with hurricanes the hurricane-force winds extend outward about 40 miles (65km) from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending 185 miles (295 km) from the center. This means that, should Matthew end up in the exact middle between Key West and Havana at its current size and strength both cities would be buffeted by winds up to 73mph.

A look at the track shows that Matthew keeps tracking westward, and if it keeps doing so it will likely smack the east coast of Florida around a bit before heading NE and giving the Carolinas some grief. This is nothing definite and can change from day to day, hour to hour. We really won't know what the hell is going to happen until it scoots past Cuba. Since we have a number of players (myself included) that may see anywhere from minor to cata-freaking-strophic effects please be understanding that a number of us may be unavailable until this passes.

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Obligatory music for those of us that are used to dealing with these things. (I went through my first direct hit in 1985 and dealt with outlying effects before Elena.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxdmw4tJJ1Y

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Last edited by ucfgoose on Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:55 PM, edited 1 time in total.

 
      
DireCorbie
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 0:22 AM 

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I sure picked a good time to go back to Florida.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 0:28 AM 

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DireCorbie wrote:
I sure picked a good time to go back to Florida.


I'm not terribly worried for myself. I am in Tampa. For those that are unfamiliar with the state, look at the map where the FL is. Go south from the F to the bay and I'm a few miles from the water on the east side of that,

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SamTheGiantSlayer
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 0:30 AM 

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I picked a really good time to leave o_o

Stay safe Goosey! And all my homies down in the 305 and up :D

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bobofwestoregonusa
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 1:40 AM 

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I think I might just be lucky enough not to be caught in the cone but I'm not sure. Homestead is super far south

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That Guy
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 2:03 AM 

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Holy crap, I think half of Amia lives in Fl. I'm in St Pete, Goose!


 
      
ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 2:09 AM 

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Not too far away at all. I'm in east Tampa, almost at the eastern terminus of the Selmon Expressway

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#StraightOutaAvernus
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 2:53 AM 

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That Guy wrote:
Holy crap, I think half of Amia lives in Fl. I'm in St Pete, Goose!


I have it in me to make a terrible joke about this being the most times Matthew has ever PvPed, but I won't because I'm in Northwest Florida so if that shit falls off the curve even a little it's plowing right through me.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 4:28 AM 

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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=290

You can watch how the shelf is steering the storm and why each day brings the storm closer to FL.

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CrazyCatLady
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 7:10 AM 

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St. Augustine here so we're gonna get smacked hard. Already stocking up on bottled water, nonperishable food, batteries, etc. Hoping like mad it will not go too far west because while I'm fortunate enough to live in a sturdy house and have home owner's insurance, many in my area are in mobile homes and most insurance companies either won't insure them or charge far too much. Think good thoughts, folks!

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 7:29 AM 

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snag an emergency weather radio that runs on a c or bigger battery. most outdoorsy stores have em and they can generally stay on for a day or two on one battery.

if you lose power you're going to be cell-dependent for weather updates and if the winds are as bad as they say, cell service might be bad (or limited to 'radio only' due to infrastructure damage and needing to prioritize essential info over the lines.)

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MisterLich
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 8:17 AM 

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Hope you all stay safe.

(Also, move up here to Washington. Our weather is pretty calm, and we have crazy good seafood.)

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 8:38 AM 

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how are your gun laws

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MisterLich
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 8:42 AM 

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I don't really know. I don't have a gun (purely because they're expensive and I'm a poor ass student. I enjoy shooting though.)

I'm right next to Idaho though and we have Cabella's there, so if I really want to buy a gun I can probably buy an F-18 there lmao.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 15:32 PM 

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As of 1100 the track has shifted significantly eastward. Sustained winds have picked up to 145 mph and the hurricane itself is moving at about 10 mph 360 degrees N.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Deerfield Beach, Florida to
the Volusia/Brevard county line. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from the Seven Mile Bridge in
the Florida Keys northward to south of Deerfield Beach, including
Lake Okeechobee.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area in Florida by late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
possible by early Thursday. Tropical storm condition are also
possible in the Florida tropical storm watch area by early Thursday.

Hurricane force winds are now extending outward to 60 miles from the center.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 15:35 PM 

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Oh, groovy. It looks like the image at the top will auto update with the newest map. No need to re-link it each time.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 16:22 PM 

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Commie wrote:
snag an emergency weather radio that runs on a c or bigger battery. most outdoorsy stores have em and they can generally stay on for a day or two on one battery.

if you lose power you're going to be cell-dependent for weather updates and if the winds are as bad as they say, cell service might be bad (or limited to 'radio only' due to infrastructure damage and needing to prioritize essential info over the lines.)


Until a few weeks ago I did cell backhaul as part of my job. Unless we have major issues with our sites cell service will generally remain OK but the provider may prioritize access to certain types of data, restrict certain types of data, or restrict data for non-first responders.

I can't say anything for towers outside the area I managed (central Florida from Manatee County north to Citrus on the west coast to Brevard through Flagler counties on the east coast) but the way we ran them you'd be hard pressed to see major issues because of the backhaul plant. Individual towers may see trouble but there is redundancy on the ring connections between hubs and on the interconnects between the east and west sides of the area.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 16:26 PM 

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yeah but we are talking about a cat 4 hurricane along the whole coast. i would be surprised if there wasn't some disruption of service or data limit.

either way get a radio.

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MazeOfThorns
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 16:26 PM 

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Thanks for doing this Goose, I have relatives in FL. For all you in Matty's path stay safe and keep us updated so we know you're ok!

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 16:34 PM 

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Yeah, Commie. I get you. After 2004 we started upgrading all the buildings here. Back then the fiber was not run for customers like the cell towers but that itself had few issues and the majority of problems on the HFC came from the coax side with most of the issue being power related, the generator running out of fuel, and it being either unsafe to send someone out or the generator being inaccessible due to storm damage. Some overhead lines were also destroyed but we keep the majority of our stuff underground as bad weather aren't unfamiliar here even for non-tropical storms.

My office, which is not a hub site, is cat 4 rated. Since the nightmare in 2004 we've had one issue and it wasn't even in FL; a hub in the Birmingham area took a direct strike from a tornado a few years ago and died.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 20:00 PM 

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Next update due in about an hour or so. Also thought you might find this neat.

When they track the hurricane they are really looking at the eyewall. That's what those tracks show. The actual cloud formation is MUCH larger.

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KairaKitty
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 20:23 PM 

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That Guy wrote:
Holy crap, I think half of Amia lives in Fl.


Apparently, this is true. (Or has relatives there :lol: )
Be safe y'all.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 20:27 PM 

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Also, satellite imagery shows some interesting things. For our Tarkuulians, the hurricane is a giant flaming lich skull. Credit Matt Devitt of WINK.

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CrazyCatLady
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 20:53 PM 

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I'm definitely gonna get slammed by it. Winds already kicking up outside and the skies are starting to get dark. Got all my last minute supplies,now charging up tablets and laptop. Generator readied and gas jugs filled. Last time my area got hit as hard as this storm is predicted to hit us I was without power for two weeks. Hopefully that won't happen again. Praying for the rest of the East Florida coast.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Tue, Oct 04 2016, 21:36 PM 

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The Hurricane Watch has been extended southward to Golden Beach, Florida. Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Matthew.

Movement has reduced to 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are down to 140 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward 45 miles from the center and TS winds 175 miles.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 16:02 PM 

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Hurricane Matthew update:

We are currently down to a category 3 hurricane but it is expected to pick up again before it hits Florida. Max sustained winds are down to 120 mph and the hurricane is moving NW at 12 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 45 miles and TS-force winds 175 miles out.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for
USA: North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line and Lake Okeechobee
Cuba: Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las Tunas
Bahamas:Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Ragged Island, Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay,
San Salvador, and Cat Island, Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for
USA: North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach
Cuba: Camaguey

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
USA: Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward, Florida Bay
Haiti: entire
Turks and Caicos Islands: entire


A note on the distinction between watches and warnings:
A hurricane/tropical storm watch means that those conditions are possible. Watches are issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. A hurricane/tropical storm warning means that those conditions are expected in the area and are issued 36 hours in advance.

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CrazyCatLady
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 17:21 PM 

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Heavy rains so far today, winds not too bad. I'm right at the Flagler county line. Got more supplies; thank the gods my insomnia caused me to order a case of 48 cans of Campbell's Chicken Noodle soup; it arrived today and now I'm set. :oops:

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 19:01 PM 

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Mandatory evacuations have begun in parts of Florida. Brevard County commissioners ordered one of the state's first mandatory evacuations for residents of Merritt Island and other barrier islands. Residents must leave starting at 3 p.m. Wednesday. Martin County emergency leaders ordered evacuations for homes along the Barrier Islands (Jupiter Island and Hutchinson Island), Sewall's Point. Evacuations are also encourage for residents in manufactured homes, and homes in low-lying areas.

Polk County (between Tampa and Orlando) schools are closed tomorrow and Friday.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 19:17 PM 

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Some models show this thing doing a 270degree turn and hitting Florida again. Be aware.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 20:33 PM 

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Commie wrote:
Some models show this thing doing a 270degree turn and hitting Florida again. Be aware.


Yep. We're hoping that loop doesn't tighten and decide to send the thing west at all but it's too early to tell anything. On a worst case scenario it could do that and go out to the Gulf of Mexico and restrengthen.

Image

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al142016_late.png

Back in 1985 Elena did a God damned 180 and hit Mississippi so it's not unheard of.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/elena1985filledrainwhite.gif

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 21:38 PM 

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An idea of what it could look like if the fucking thing does loop.

https://www.facebook.com/paul.dellegattofox/videos/1206701156056219/?hc_ref=NEWSFEED

And now ThatGuy and I are under TS watch. Hooray!

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 21:56 PM 

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And this is what a TS watch looks like from outside my office. That's why they give you the warning so early, so you have time to get ready.

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Pinkhaml86
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 22:03 PM 



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be prepared and be safe my friends!

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 23:10 PM 

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDqwlAU2QYs

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Wed, Oct 05 2016, 23:33 PM 

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECIBjDLwCVA

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 3:28 AM 

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*actual post*

http://imgur.com/ZELoPNw

stay safe guys.

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CrazyCatLady
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 4:22 AM 

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One death in my area already; roads are starting to get flooded (and the storm hasn't fully landed yet), and a motorist here lost control of his truck at the end of my road. He went head on into a concrete barrier (road construction going on) and he was thrown from his vehicle. Everyone, please keep safe.

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#StraightOutaAvernus
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 4:41 AM 

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Location: WHY SHOULD I TELL YOU WHERE WHEN YOU'RE ABOUT TO DIE?! NGAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!

>When you're 17 and the family says they don't think it doing aforementioned 260 and curving back into + thru Florida into the Gulf will happen

Welp.

Let's hope that it doesn't, or that we already have shit prepared, b/c clearly it's been decided that it's not important to keep an eye on this vOv

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 5:05 AM 

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its a chance it's not solid. there are like 5 different systems working at this storm and it's why there's been so much difficulty in predicting its actions.

like I said, some models have it going back over florida. doesn't mean it's going to, this might be out-dated info by the time you read it, but it's on some of the plots.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 16:36 PM 

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some facts

matthew is getting really organized and quickly

the turn back into florida is looking like it's going to happen

RICK SCOTT SAID HE ISN'T DISPATCHING ANYONE TO RESCUE ANYONE IF THE STORM IS PRESENT. WE ARE LOOKING AT A STORM SURGE UP TO 9 FEET HIGH AND IT SHOULD HIT DURING HIGH TIDE IN SOME PLACES. IF YOU DON'T EVACUATE AND SHIT HAPPENS YOU WILL DIE. EVACUATE IF TOLD TO.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 16:39 PM 

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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... inundation

Just evacuate if you're told to. Please.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 17:48 PM 

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Here's a rather interesting and quite scary flash animation of what's going on now via satellite. I do have a chuckle about the name "Matthew Long Floater" though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/14L/flash-vis-long.html

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CrazyCatLady
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 17:48 PM 

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Told to evacuate. Can't. Have no where to take my pets. I'm staying home. Last time, with Ivan, had people driving around after the storm ended casing houses to rob. I met them in the front yard with my AR-15. Will be doing that again should anyone be stupid enough to try to rob the place. Seriously; the roads here are already flooding out, traffic is at standstill in many areas and the entire town is out of gas. Just going to ride it out at home and hope for the best. It's hitting in the morning here. Love to you all and be safe out there.

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:06 PM 

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Matthew currently sits about 125 miles ESE of West Palm Beach and is moving NW at 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 140mph and strengthening is possible but a category 5 is not expected. (Then again, neither was the SOB landing in Florida, or a loop, so take that with a grain of salt.) Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.

Interesting developments continue with Nicole, which was recently upgraded to a category 1 hurricane. It has no idea where the fuck it's going. Looking at the models they have a pretty good idea where Matthew is going to go, at least for a while. Nicole is indecisive and is just hanging out in a little area, looping back on itself. I don't expect Nicole and Matthew to get together, but if they do we've got a whole new ballgame.

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MazeOfThorns
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:14 PM 

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CrazyCatLady wrote:
Told to evacuate. Can't. Have no where to take my pets. I'm staying home. Last time, with Ivan, had people driving around after the storm ended casing houses to rob. I met them in the front yard with my AR-15.

God Bless America, you go girl! Stay safe *hugs!*

PS. Goose, these models are amazing, thanks again for putting them up.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:35 PM 

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CrazyCatLady wrote:
Told to evacuate. Can't. Have no where to take my pets. I'm staying home. Last time, with Ivan, had people driving around after the storm ended casing houses to rob. I met them in the front yard with my AR-15. Will be doing that again should anyone be stupid enough to try to rob the place. Seriously; the roads here are already flooding out, traffic is at standstill in many areas and the entire town is out of gas. Just going to ride it out at home and hope for the best. It's hitting in the morning here. Love to you all and be safe out there.


ivan wasn't a cat 4 that essentially hit directly though.

either way good luck. hope you stocked up on food, water, and 5.56

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ucfgoose
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:45 PM 

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Well, 48 cans of chicken noodle soup doesn't seem like such a silly order now, does it?

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:46 PM 

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if you can see or smell the sea where you are, this is what it's going to look like after the cat 4 passes.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:50 PM 

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this is what the winds will be like.

get out of there. a 9+ foot storm surge and 120mph winds for 10+ consecutive hours are going to fuck you up. find a way to leave. excuses wont matter when your house falls apart with you in it.

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Commie
 
PostPosted: Thu, Oct 06 2016, 18:53 PM 

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108 dead in Haiti.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/06/us/hurric ... index.html

Hurricane Matthew: 'This storm will kill you,' Florida governor says

You still have a few hours.

145mph winds guys.

GET OUT.

_________________
ANT ALARM

Count Kaldrjarn Pitt | Archmage Kilmar | Sarguk Morderer

ANT ALARM

MisterLich wrote:
First of all, my brain is one of the best here.


 
      
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