Okay... my understanding of this is:

A character tries to knock another down and the formula for success is:

Attacker AB versus Defender AB for the hit. Once they hit, there is another? roll for the KD.
ATT AB versus DEF Discipline. Is this accurate?

Now, DEVcrit.

They must first hit the defender and be in the critical range of their weapon, then, confirm that critical hit with another roll. Then, the DEF must make a DC fortitude save versus the DC of the attacker's devcrit, which is 10+ 1/2 CL +STR mod.

So... if this is correct, and I'm not messing up my math, let's say an attacker with 50 AB is trying to hit a character with ED and let's say 65 AC:

The attacker must roll a 20 to "use up" the ED, then roll another 20 to hit the Defender, then another 20 to confirm that crit, then the defender has to fail the save. Is that right? I mean... that's 3 20's in a given round. Sure, it can happen but.. the odds are against it.

Enlighten me if I am incorrect, please!

ED means the first attackroll is a miss, regardless if it's a crit or not.
For KD, you first have to confirm a hit, then it's that attackroll vs defender's discipline to confirm a KD.

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Adair - Druid and part time treant cosplayer

So it -is- as I said...

Dev critters don't have -5 ab to the ab, and the first attack doesn't have to be 20, it just has to hit. Beyond that your math is on point, ED is strong. There's a 1/400 chance to dev crit a high ac epic dodger with high fort if the first hit activates epic dodge.

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I am not weird, I am limited edition

They don't have a -5 no, but an "effective" -5 since ED discounts the first hit, crit or not, thereby making a devcrit on a ED dexer that much more difficult.

Epic dodge does not apply an effective -5 ab. Haste is a hard counter to that.

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Gerald Edmund
Discord: Metal Viking Guy #5433

DC taxation is theft!

Well, sort of. Haste just gives an extra attack at the highest AB. So, you don't have a counter, but another chance to hit. Really it's bad to say "effective -5 AB" since that's not how it works at all. It's "the first hit doesn't count", not the first attack. So.. you can easily miss with haste too, since, if the 1st attack misses, and the next three do too... and you hit on the haste attack... ED won.